First
Short-Term Global Warming Forecast: Record Heat
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2007/2007-08-10-02.asp
EXETER,
UK, August 10, 2007 (ENS) - Get ready for the heat. In the world's first near-term
global warming forecast, British climate scientists say the planet's temperature
will plateau for two years and then rise sharply through 2014.
Using
powerful computer models, scientists at the British meteorological service's Hadley
Center predict that at least half of the years after 2009 will exceed temperatures
during 1998, the warmest year currently on record.
The
year 2014 is likely to be 0.3°Celsius (.5°Fahrenheit) warmer than 2004,
the Met Office scientists predict.
This
forecast means that while it has taken a century for the global temperature to
rise 0.8°C (1.44°F) it will take only 10 years for the planet to heat
up half again as much.
Published
in the journal "Science," today, the forecast indicates that a natural
cooling trend in the eastern and southern Pacific Ocean has kept global warming
in check, but that trend is about to end.
Scientists
at the Met Office Hadley Centre present the first decadal climate prediction model
covering the decade from 2004 to 2014. Usually climate predictions cover the period
of a century.
Beyond
2014, the odds of breaking the temperature record increase still more, the scientists
said.
The
new modeling system forecasts the Earth's surface temperature with improved skill
throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions.
Team
leader Dr. Doug Smith said, "Observed relative cooling in the Southern Ocean
and tropical Pacific over the last couple of years was correctly predicted by
the new system, giving us greater confidence in the model's performance."
The
new model incorporates the effects of sea surface temperatures as well as other
factors such as human emissions of greenhouse gases, projected changes in the
Sun's output and the effects of previous volcanic eruptions.
By
altering the global energy balance, such mechanisms force the climate to change.
"Occurrences
of El Nino, for example, have a significant effect on shorter-term predictions,"
said Smith, referring to the periodic warming of the eastern tropical Pacific
Ocean known as El Nino.
"By
including such internal variability," he said, "we have shown a substantial
improvement in predictions of surface temperature," he said.
These
predictions will be useful for businesses and policy-makers who will be able to
respond to short-term climate change when making decisions today, said Smith.
"The
next decade is within many people's understanding and brings home the reality
of a changing climate," he said.
Total
global warming, on a decadal average, is 0.8°C (1.44°F) since 1900, according
to an analysis released in February by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC, a group of thousands of scientists from around the world.
While
a temperature increase of a few degrees might not sound dramatic, it will have
dramatic effects on our climate, according to Greenpeace climate campaigner Stephanie
Tunmore, who said, "That's why is vital that action is taken now to reduce
emissions and keep warming below 2°C to prevent catastrophic climate impacts."
In
a longer-term study of the effects of climate change on developing countries released
in November, Hadley Centre scientists and others from around the world said the
effects would be widespread and severe.
"We
project that by 2100, if significant mitigation does not take place, around half
of the planet's land surface will be liable to drought," the scientists warned.
"Some less developed countries are likely to be severely affected. Africa,
South America and parts of South East Asia are likely to see worsening conditions."
"Future
climate change will affect water supplies and food production," they predict.
"There will also be a wide range of other impacts, such as coastal flooding,
increased heat related mortality, and loss of important ecosystems."
